(Dobbs) "Guardian of the Hormuz Strait?" I wouldn't pass through in a rowboat.Just a “military skirmish.” That’s how detached he is. That’s how unhinged he is.
It’s almost hard to remember anymore, but when Donald Trump ran for president again two years ago, he said he would be starting “no new wars.” As in this post a year ago on his website and many others, he even called himself the “President of Peace.” Nothing could be further from the truth. He is the president of war. And from all appearances, he seems to be making all the big decisions about the Iran war himself. As he said during his first campaign when one of America’s big targets was ISIS, “I know more about ISIS than the generals do.” He appears to think he also knows more than the generals do, and the civilian experts too, about Iran. Perfectly in keeping with all we know about this vacuously self-confident con man. That’s why we’re in this mess. He is making decisions that look impulsive, vituperative, explosive. That’s not how generals think. It’s not how security specialists think. And if they are made against the backdrop of November’s midterm elections where Trump could lose more than just control of Congress, they are desperate. The latest is, he has pulled the gloves off. Again. Iran is not without sin here. It is firing more missiles and drones at American allies across the Gulf and at foreign ships in the Gulf, ships the United States is trying to guide out. But this caveat must always be stated: Iran didn’t start this war. Trump did. Of course while the U.S. is attacking right now with force as great as anything we’ve seen in the four-and-a-half months of this war— once projected by the president to be over “in four weeks”— he told a news conference yesterday it’s just a “military skirmish.” That’s how detached he is. That’s how unhinged he is. Somehow, hundreds of billions of dollars, untold thousands of lives, and the biggest armada of American ships and planes deployed in decades hardly qualifies as a “military skirmish.” He also told reporters, “I think it’s going very fast. We’ve demolished their military.” How often have we heard that one? It makes me want to ask, if we have demolished their military, then why do we still have to stage these heavy attacks? Why, in fact, are we still at war with them? I’ll tell you why. Because Trump is smarter than the generals. Except, he’s actually not any smarter than the dumbest private. He has made a mass of mistakes, but in my opinion the two biggest are, he underestimated or simply didn’t even understand the Iranians’ capacity to endure hardship, and he didn’t figure out that Iran could take control of Strait of Hormuz and turn world economy upside down. Now he’s trying to correct that but probably, as we could predict, going to make it worse. He declared yesterday that the United States will control the Strait of Hormuz. Not just control it, but charge every ship passing in and out a fee equivalent to 20% of the value of its cargo. “I want to be reimbursed because we’re protecting a very rich portion of the world,” Trump said. “We are going to be reimbursed for protection.” Consequence #1: All the nations whose ships can’t transit the strait might have something to say about that and what they’ll say is, “Sir”… he loves to be called “sir”— “why should we pay you for protection we didn’t need before you started this war, when everyone passed through the Strait of Hormuz for free?” Consequence #2: If he does get away with this, shippers pass the price on to us. Consequence #3: The price of oil immediately shot up 9% on the news. Consequence #4: When oil costs more, we pay for that too. Consequence #5: Trump’s toll flies in the face of assurances that he and his toadies made just last month when Iran said it would be charging a toll: Secretary of State Rubio told leaders when he visited the Gulf just a couple of weeks ago, “That’s an international waterway. There isn’t a nation on earth that supports having to pay money to go through the straits.” Consequence #6: One diplomat told CNN: “What’s the consequence for not paying? Let’s say a ship says, well, I’m not going to pay the fee. It’s not like a toll on a road. You don’t get a ticket in the mail. They get shot at. You shoot at one ship, you sink one ship, no other ship is going to move. So that sort of system is not only unwise. It can’t happen. It’s not even workable.” Consequence #7: “As sure as shootin,” to use an apt phrase, Iran will not just lie down and take this. Who knows, maybe Trump will succeed, but he won’t get away with it without a fight, or maybe more accurately put, without more of a fight. Maybe an even bloodier one, for the U.S. and Iran, than we’ve already seen so far. When Iran has responded in the past to ultimatums President Trump has made, it has carried out its threats. What its military said yesterday was, it “will not, under any circumstances, allow the United States to interfere in the management of the Strait of Hormuz, and we will not do so in the future.” Consequence #8: According to marine authorities, in the past day two ships entered the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz to pick up their load, and four got out. That’s a colossal contrast with figures before Trump started this war: an average of 110 ships went in and out every day. Now, nothing’s moving again. Has anyone asked shipping companies and insurance firms whether they feel fine about sending their ships in and out, now that Trump has declared that the United States is the “Guardian of the Hormuz Strait?” I wouldn’t pass through right now in a rowboat. Leave a comment Donald Trump still doesn’t understand that he’s wrong. Wrong about starting the war against a nation armed and intent on survival, and wrong about aggravating it when it ends up costing all of us even more dearly, when the odd of success are dubious. If his aides have been so cowed by the president that they haven’t advised him against taking some of the actions he has taken, shame on them. And if they have but he has overruled and ignored them, shame on him. Share
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